* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 75 79 85 85 87 86 87 83 83 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 75 79 85 85 87 86 87 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 73 78 85 88 91 89 88 88 84 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 15 12 11 13 12 15 9 10 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -2 1 -1 -2 -5 -5 0 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 105 92 106 113 110 106 89 109 130 159 222 196 226 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 150 150 146 144 141 140 138 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 62 61 62 64 66 66 63 58 55 57 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 17 18 19 19 21 21 23 23 26 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 71 72 67 55 56 62 64 72 63 68 66 68 70 200 MB DIV 65 63 56 48 38 54 32 21 12 12 25 25 34 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 1 0 -1 5 2 LAND (KM) 2215 2114 2014 1902 1790 1537 1349 1161 977 781 575 396 243 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.2 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 135.7 136.6 137.5 138.4 139.3 141.4 142.9 144.5 146.1 147.8 149.5 151.1 152.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 10 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 23 16 12 13 19 24 25 27 32 26 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 7. 10. 10. 14. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 30. 30. 32. 31. 32. 28. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##