* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 42 43 43 42 46 51 59 63 70 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 42 43 43 42 46 51 59 63 70 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 41 40 39 40 44 51 61 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 18 22 30 24 23 17 8 14 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 2 3 -1 1 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 267 271 288 291 282 286 273 290 287 298 231 237 204 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.5 30.5 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 147 147 148 153 157 168 171 171 165 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 142 143 143 143 145 146 153 163 160 142 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 52 54 55 56 63 64 67 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 14 13 12 13 14 17 18 24 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -35 -36 -41 -38 -57 -82 -61 -62 -21 -22 13 200 MB DIV 28 19 3 27 36 20 28 17 24 37 54 30 71 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -7 -11 -12 -4 -12 -7 -5 0 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 675 518 357 206 77 130 157 265 252 284 200 79 38 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.8 21.2 22.3 23.2 24.3 25.7 27.0 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.0 62.4 63.8 65.1 68.0 70.7 73.0 75.0 76.7 78.2 79.3 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 38 43 50 38 67 64 57 36 68 63 55 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 6. 11. 19. 23. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED