* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 65 70 71 70 68 68 68 68 69 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 65 70 71 70 68 68 68 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 59 64 69 73 74 73 72 71 73 76 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 14 12 12 11 11 7 7 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 251 267 275 280 268 272 279 302 268 260 240 234 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 151 151 151 152 151 151 151 151 153 153 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 58 61 61 59 63 67 70 70 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -34 -19 -7 1 21 23 15 14 3 3 -11 -10 200 MB DIV 19 7 -7 -4 8 10 14 3 20 18 31 30 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 964 977 990 1035 1080 1174 1278 1394 1525 1624 1682 1740 1796 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.2 20.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.0 168.1 168.5 168.9 169.8 170.9 172.2 173.7 174.9 175.7 176.5 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 51 54 57 60 57 59 51 39 43 55 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 25. 26. 25. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##