* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 81 82 85 89 89 87 88 88 86 81 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 81 82 85 89 89 87 88 88 86 81 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 80 86 91 96 97 96 94 90 86 82 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 12 13 15 10 11 10 4 6 5 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 2 2 1 -1 -2 1 -2 -4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 101 100 100 87 91 101 89 132 168 171 196 229 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 146 144 140 138 137 136 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 61 66 65 61 58 55 52 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 20 22 23 23 26 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 72 69 58 62 66 63 71 77 73 72 74 76 76 200 MB DIV 78 65 52 51 54 29 33 15 25 -9 18 17 49 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 2078 1965 1853 1738 1624 1396 1188 1020 846 660 464 283 138 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.0 138.9 139.9 140.8 142.7 144.4 145.8 147.3 148.9 150.6 152.2 153.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 13 12 13 19 25 24 27 35 29 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 10. 12. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 17. 20. 24. 24. 22. 23. 23. 21. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##