* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 56 66 76 83 89 96 102 104 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 56 66 76 83 89 96 102 104 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 54 66 78 92 105 115 120 120 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 13 6 6 1 3 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 342 300 306 320 325 342 320 329 308 55 48 42 52 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 162 159 157 158 159 157 154 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 72 71 71 71 70 65 61 58 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 13 15 19 21 25 27 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -19 -16 -11 -5 16 38 48 56 63 66 64 200 MB DIV 31 25 19 32 41 52 66 72 86 85 140 109 87 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1312 1361 1401 1451 1509 1647 1786 1932 2081 2224 2330 2354 2171 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.6 117.0 118.2 119.3 121.5 123.6 125.6 127.5 129.5 131.6 133.3 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 31 25 27 29 35 30 30 32 24 19 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 17. 23. 27. 32. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 36. 46. 53. 59. 66. 72. 74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 THIRTEEN 08/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 THIRTEEN 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##