* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 59 64 67 68 69 72 78 81 81 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 59 64 67 68 69 72 78 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 60 64 66 67 69 70 72 76 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 14 11 11 10 9 6 7 4 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 2 1 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 243 265 272 272 266 239 225 243 242 215 208 248 233 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 152 152 152 151 151 150 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 59 60 59 60 62 64 65 66 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -23 -8 -1 13 27 28 23 16 6 10 -7 -4 200 MB DIV 1 -1 1 8 13 13 11 8 20 23 69 2 31 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 0 2 0 0 3 3 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 964 986 1008 1058 1108 1245 1374 1489 1580 1650 1711 1752 1791 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.2 168.3 168.8 169.2 170.6 172.0 173.3 174.4 175.3 176.1 176.7 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 5 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 52 55 58 56 58 57 42 40 50 53 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 20. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 23. 24. 27. 33. 36. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##