* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 90 95 99 98 99 97 96 92 88 83 V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 90 95 99 98 99 97 96 92 88 83 V (KT) LGE mod 75 84 92 97 101 105 106 104 100 94 89 82 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 10 11 4 3 5 14 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 7 6 2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 99 101 92 89 85 66 101 115 209 277 246 257 226 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 147 146 143 139 138 136 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 68 69 69 65 58 55 54 56 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 19 21 23 23 25 26 28 28 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 59 63 62 53 61 55 55 56 69 81 87 200 MB DIV 77 52 49 53 56 17 17 4 3 -2 11 32 5 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 -1 5 4 10 LAND (KM) 1975 1853 1731 1616 1502 1299 1096 922 763 587 394 212 66 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.9 138.9 139.9 140.9 141.8 143.5 145.2 146.7 148.1 149.6 151.2 152.8 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 13 12 13 14 26 24 26 28 35 29 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 10. 11. 14. 15. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 20. 24. 23. 25. 22. 21. 17. 13. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##