* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 54 67 77 88 95 101 107 110 111 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 54 67 77 88 95 101 107 110 111 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 51 57 71 86 101 115 125 129 126 119 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 7 10 11 5 8 6 9 3 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 319 305 316 327 343 10 352 356 30 32 21 308 111 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 160 157 156 158 157 155 151 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 71 70 69 68 65 61 60 59 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 19 20 24 27 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -8 -5 -1 16 47 58 61 61 69 53 59 200 MB DIV 41 37 42 52 44 45 57 63 82 108 87 62 58 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -1 0 2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1333 1369 1418 1490 1570 1696 1824 1972 2122 2230 2309 2225 2042 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 117.0 118.2 119.4 120.6 122.8 124.8 126.7 128.6 130.5 132.4 134.2 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 25 27 31 32 27 30 30 18 22 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 10. 15. 17. 23. 27. 32. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 32. 42. 53. 60. 66. 72. 76. 77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##