* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 49 49 50 53 58 64 69 74 75 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 43 48 48 49 52 57 63 67 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 43 48 46 45 46 50 58 68 78 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 22 27 30 24 21 14 8 9 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 3 1 3 2 -1 1 2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 299 294 281 284 289 278 288 280 290 206 223 210 229 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.9 30.5 30.6 30.0 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 147 147 147 152 156 168 171 171 168 157 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 144 144 143 145 147 156 164 161 146 134 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 53 53 55 56 59 60 64 59 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 13 13 15 16 18 20 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -26 -28 -24 -27 -66 -58 -65 -29 -35 0 10 200 MB DIV 16 40 48 25 9 16 30 24 29 42 27 57 24 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -10 -3 0 -7 7 0 6 5 5 5 8 LAND (KM) 393 241 89 -11 78 59 188 201 229 188 102 77 79 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.3 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.3 26.6 27.8 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.8 65.1 66.5 67.9 70.6 73.1 75.3 77.2 78.4 79.1 79.6 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 33 69 59 73 51 74 66 71 57 47 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 29. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED