* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 63 63 63 69 68 74 74 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 60 61 63 63 63 63 69 68 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 62 63 63 63 61 60 60 62 63 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 13 13 13 13 10 9 9 14 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 255 269 277 272 253 252 250 268 237 244 248 240 248 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 151 152 152 151 151 152 153 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 60 61 59 60 64 64 67 64 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 24 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -12 -2 11 22 22 19 22 6 -1 -15 -11 -2 200 MB DIV 1 3 4 22 14 10 9 24 4 43 48 39 7 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 2 1 1 2 4 4 8 6 7 LAND (KM) 970 1003 1036 1078 1121 1216 1321 1426 1537 1618 1691 1729 1732 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.8 18.3 19.3 20.8 22.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.0 169.4 170.4 171.5 172.7 174.0 175.1 176.1 176.6 176.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 54 56 57 55 55 58 45 41 57 38 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 15. 14. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 14. 13. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##