* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 90 94 97 100 101 98 98 94 90 88 82 V (KT) LAND 80 85 90 94 97 100 101 98 98 94 90 88 82 V (KT) LGE mod 80 87 92 96 99 101 101 100 95 90 85 79 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 9 8 13 6 5 8 4 12 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 8 7 4 -1 -2 -2 -3 -6 -3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 106 108 81 81 79 79 120 141 245 272 235 222 224 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 146 144 140 138 137 136 136 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 68 69 66 62 58 58 58 58 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 23 24 26 26 29 30 29 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 60 56 51 55 53 47 45 51 60 65 67 200 MB DIV 52 55 57 59 49 17 3 15 -14 34 20 54 30 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 1 0 0 6 10 9 LAND (KM) 1853 1731 1609 1492 1376 1173 1000 836 697 541 375 209 80 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.0 142.9 144.6 146.0 147.4 148.6 149.9 151.3 152.8 154.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 13 14 20 25 24 27 32 32 27 35 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 14. 16. 16. 17. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 18. 18. 14. 10. 8. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##