* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 79 91 100 106 110 113 112 113 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 63 79 91 100 106 110 113 112 113 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 59 67 85 102 117 128 129 124 116 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 11 5 6 7 8 5 5 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 317 326 330 350 11 41 58 30 12 8 38 19 29 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 160 158 156 158 157 156 153 149 144 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 69 67 66 61 58 54 56 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 20 22 24 27 30 32 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -3 1 7 28 53 68 72 82 80 73 70 200 MB DIV 40 54 62 63 45 90 93 119 97 78 67 57 31 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1378 1437 1505 1577 1636 1780 1947 2086 2171 2268 2248 2009 1807 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.1 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.9 124.1 126.1 128.0 129.7 131.8 134.0 136.1 137.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 28 31 34 28 29 32 23 20 16 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 16. 19. 23. 27. 32. 32. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 39. 51. 60. 67. 70. 73. 72. 73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##