* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 36 38 41 48 55 63 69 72 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 37 36 38 41 48 55 62 68 71 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 37 36 35 33 31 32 36 43 52 62 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 28 29 27 26 20 15 6 13 11 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 1 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 292 282 288 295 293 281 295 305 282 256 222 237 230 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.6 30.5 29.9 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 147 147 147 155 161 170 171 171 166 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 144 143 143 148 151 156 165 159 143 131 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 52 55 54 55 57 60 63 61 62 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 12 10 11 11 13 15 18 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -19 -15 -11 -9 -28 -51 -63 -50 -39 -15 -18 5 200 MB DIV 49 57 41 9 -1 11 26 30 35 41 42 46 48 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -6 -1 -2 3 -4 4 2 9 7 14 LAND (KM) 298 138 11 36 18 66 157 198 233 144 50 62 98 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.4 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.5 26.9 27.9 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.8 66.2 67.5 68.9 71.6 74.0 76.0 77.6 78.8 79.6 79.8 79.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 13 12 10 9 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 42 35 11 48 36 52 61 65 32 62 50 44 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. 1. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED