* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 68 71 69 69 69 70 71 72 76 74 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 68 71 69 69 69 70 71 72 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 71 72 70 69 68 66 65 67 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 11 11 14 11 6 10 10 15 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 3 2 2 4 2 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 249 253 231 233 224 239 258 232 237 238 247 242 244 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 152 151 151 151 153 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 58 59 58 60 61 62 62 60 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 17 19 18 20 21 23 24 24 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR -9 1 16 24 25 26 24 24 4 1 -4 0 18 200 MB DIV 0 12 26 7 16 15 -10 16 14 30 23 21 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 2 -3 -1 0 2 2 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1008 1053 1099 1143 1188 1287 1409 1511 1595 1666 1745 1779 1794 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.9 21.5 22.8 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 168.3 168.7 169.1 169.5 170.0 171.1 172.4 173.6 174.7 175.7 176.7 177.1 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 55 56 54 51 59 59 45 48 48 27 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 11. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 16. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##