* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 63 69 76 89 103 108 113 114 117 116 111 V (KT) LAND 50 56 63 69 76 89 103 108 113 114 117 116 111 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 66 75 84 102 119 129 131 126 120 110 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 9 11 8 3 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 3 11 SHEAR DIR 328 323 351 12 31 78 30 6 355 4 349 5 28 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 159 157 156 157 158 155 152 148 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 70 67 63 58 58 55 54 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 20 21 27 27 31 33 36 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -4 -1 4 12 38 56 64 66 81 69 70 59 200 MB DIV 67 76 69 44 51 88 112 109 111 85 69 44 63 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 1 7 LAND (KM) 1448 1520 1601 1661 1720 1863 2002 2112 2199 2309 2146 1952 1821 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.4 120.7 121.8 122.9 124.9 126.7 128.4 130.3 132.5 134.9 136.6 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 32 32 30 28 35 39 25 21 13 37 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 19. 20. 25. 28. 34. 37. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 26. 39. 53. 58. 63. 64. 67. 66. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##