* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 38 37 41 47 54 58 66 71 73 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 34 33 35 39 45 52 56 63 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 33 31 33 33 35 40 48 57 66 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 28 26 23 18 9 14 13 14 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 2 1 1 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 292 292 294 292 280 287 291 287 225 242 225 227 222 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.5 30.6 30.3 29.9 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 146 149 157 169 172 170 169 166 156 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 143 142 144 151 159 166 161 148 142 133 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 57 57 57 59 63 66 62 60 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 9 10 12 14 15 18 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 -9 -6 -15 -44 -44 -61 -40 -51 -16 -3 13 200 MB DIV 53 44 13 12 7 13 16 22 36 22 49 31 35 700-850 TADV -7 -3 0 0 -2 -3 -4 3 2 2 2 8 4 LAND (KM) 191 66 21 -12 -25 111 140 177 143 57 50 73 88 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 26.1 26.9 28.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.8 70.2 72.9 75.6 77.7 79.0 79.6 79.6 79.8 80.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 15 13 10 8 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 44 26 68 74 45 72 57 70 52 50 43 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. 1. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 1. 7. 14. 18. 26. 31. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)