* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 63 65 63 69 68 69 71 75 74 77 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 63 65 63 69 68 69 71 75 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 62 62 62 63 64 66 67 69 71 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 11 11 6 6 6 9 9 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 1 3 5 2 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 249 245 237 234 228 236 223 215 183 208 216 226 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 152 151 151 151 152 153 154 154 153 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 55 59 56 58 55 56 57 57 59 56 55 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 18 23 23 24 25 28 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 23 30 28 27 25 14 5 -5 -4 -6 0 200 MB DIV 13 23 -1 5 20 3 12 4 11 28 10 -5 4 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -1 0 1 4 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1065 1112 1160 1226 1293 1418 1553 1661 1733 1794 1850 1893 1914 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 168.8 169.3 169.7 170.4 171.0 172.4 173.9 175.2 176.2 177.0 177.7 178.2 178.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 56 54 52 59 59 45 42 47 42 28 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 6. 7. 9. 10. 15. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 9. 8. 9. 11. 15. 14. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##