* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 83 86 88 90 90 87 83 80 76 72 67 V (KT) LAND 80 81 83 86 88 90 90 87 83 80 76 72 67 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 83 85 88 91 91 89 85 79 74 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 13 13 5 3 9 9 16 15 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -7 -3 2 2 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 89 82 76 76 94 132 267 264 239 234 212 228 202 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 146 143 139 137 137 137 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 69 64 60 61 62 63 64 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 23 24 24 26 26 26 28 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 38 39 38 36 30 34 42 59 66 70 70 200 MB DIV 59 70 57 34 24 13 9 -15 24 35 83 49 23 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 1 1 3 11 7 10 6 LAND (KM) 1596 1474 1353 1251 1149 975 792 629 466 304 180 137 108 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.8 20.1 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 141.4 142.4 143.4 144.3 145.1 146.5 148.0 149.4 150.7 152.0 153.2 154.2 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 23 27 25 25 28 34 33 34 36 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. 0. -4. -8. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##