* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 76 84 92 106 115 121 119 119 117 112 111 V (KT) LAND 60 68 76 84 92 106 115 121 119 119 117 112 111 V (KT) LGE mod 60 71 83 94 105 126 138 140 131 122 113 100 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 6 8 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 0 1 6 8 SHEAR DIR 305 333 353 32 58 40 26 27 352 354 359 38 19 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 158 157 157 157 154 150 145 141 137 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 70 69 65 61 61 62 61 64 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 23 25 29 32 34 36 39 39 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 8 15 28 58 69 74 78 68 69 62 65 200 MB DIV 98 96 71 71 106 109 124 107 102 61 35 31 62 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 1535 1612 1690 1756 1827 1941 2035 2145 2221 2324 2084 1884 1742 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.5 127.2 129.1 131.1 133.3 135.4 137.2 138.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 36 32 30 33 36 40 21 18 16 36 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 30. 32. 31. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 32. 46. 55. 61. 59. 59. 57. 52. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 5.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 77% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 71% is 11.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 71% is 16.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##