* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 61 62 65 68 70 74 77 77 83 83 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 61 62 65 68 70 74 77 77 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 59 59 61 64 68 72 74 77 82 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 1 1 0 1 4 1 0 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 249 245 225 227 233 255 204 211 161 206 211 232 207 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 152 151 152 154 154 154 154 153 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 56 55 58 58 56 57 56 52 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 18 19 21 23 25 27 27 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 30 30 29 38 32 13 15 7 0 21 29 200 MB DIV 18 -4 4 0 5 2 20 3 38 7 5 -8 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -6 -2 0 1 2 2 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1146 1208 1269 1336 1403 1549 1682 1797 1860 1899 1917 1964 2036 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 169.5 170.1 170.7 171.4 172.1 173.7 175.2 176.6 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.9 179.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 53 52 55 62 49 38 39 43 35 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 17. 23. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##