* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 84 85 87 94 93 93 87 82 79 76 71 V (KT) LAND 80 81 84 85 87 94 93 93 87 82 79 76 71 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 83 85 87 91 93 90 85 79 72 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 9 8 6 4 5 15 18 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -7 -4 0 0 4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 87 53 63 83 91 20 320 227 241 235 223 235 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 146 144 140 138 137 137 139 140 138 136 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 65 62 59 57 56 58 62 61 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 24 28 27 28 28 28 28 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 42 42 46 44 47 49 55 74 80 74 77 200 MB DIV 54 51 33 31 24 8 1 0 22 52 52 39 11 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 0 2 11 11 14 9 8 LAND (KM) 1440 1333 1227 1130 1033 850 686 514 350 178 102 93 151 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.7 21.7 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.6 144.5 145.3 146.1 147.6 148.9 150.3 151.6 153.1 154.6 155.8 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 26 24 24 27 32 35 30 39 27 21 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 6. 5. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 15. 13. 13. 7. 2. -1. -4. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##