* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 86 94 102 113 117 121 117 112 112 107 105 V (KT) LAND 70 78 86 94 102 113 117 121 117 112 112 107 105 V (KT) LGE mod 70 81 93 105 116 130 137 138 128 115 104 92 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 10 8 6 9 8 11 12 7 10 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 1 6 10 11 SHEAR DIR 360 2 26 48 50 11 358 350 342 348 14 25 20 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 158 157 158 156 151 147 142 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 66 61 58 59 58 60 62 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 26 28 32 34 37 38 38 41 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 21 26 45 58 69 78 87 82 86 83 96 200 MB DIV 103 77 71 85 83 126 96 124 91 71 49 53 16 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 -8 -1 0 4 9 7 LAND (KM) 1628 1701 1762 1824 1891 1986 2080 2183 2312 2131 1934 1767 1627 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.6 122.6 123.6 124.6 126.3 128.1 130.3 132.8 135.0 136.7 138.2 139.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 12 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 33 30 30 35 38 25 19 14 31 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 24. 25. 25. 31. 31. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 32. 43. 47. 51. 47. 42. 42. 37. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 56% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 56% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##