* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 42 44 47 55 60 65 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 36 36 38 41 49 41 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 36 33 36 36 37 42 39 32 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 28 25 22 11 10 11 12 12 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 1 1 -6 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 282 281 277 286 298 302 309 220 218 216 239 242 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.5 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.3 29.8 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 149 158 162 172 171 170 170 169 164 155 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 147 157 159 165 166 164 159 148 139 131 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 55 55 63 63 61 60 59 55 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 9 9 11 13 15 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 -5 -23 -47 -42 -65 -35 -36 -7 -12 6 -6 200 MB DIV 20 7 -10 12 14 35 31 38 26 59 5 31 14 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -13 -12 -2 -9 -1 0 2 -1 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 63 -1 -77 11 45 48 120 80 -23 -45 -81 -78 -83 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.8 71.2 72.8 74.5 77.2 78.8 80.2 81.1 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 16 12 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 6 80 110 57 51 99 75 80 61 43 29 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 2. 10. 15. 20. 21. 22. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED