* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 65 67 69 72 73 71 77 79 81 87 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 65 67 69 72 73 71 77 79 81 87 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 62 62 63 64 67 71 76 81 86 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 17 14 9 11 9 14 13 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 246 248 245 256 260 240 250 234 224 247 261 264 247 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 151 153 153 154 154 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 56 56 59 61 59 56 55 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 17 19 20 19 23 25 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 37 30 31 28 10 6 -5 -16 -31 -19 -24 200 MB DIV -5 1 -2 -16 -9 13 8 16 4 32 13 7 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -8 -6 0 3 3 5 5 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 1207 1276 1345 1420 1496 1615 1743 1829 1880 1918 1954 2005 2072 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.7 22.7 23.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 170.2 170.9 171.6 172.4 173.2 174.6 176.1 177.2 177.9 178.4 178.8 179.3 179.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 64 58 57 59 50 47 47 46 37 24 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 11. 14. 15. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 17. 19. 21. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##