* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 86 89 93 96 96 96 88 85 79 76 73 V (KT) LAND 80 82 86 89 93 96 96 96 88 85 79 76 73 V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 85 88 90 94 95 90 83 77 70 64 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 4 2 4 4 5 12 14 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -3 1 4 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 76 78 84 83 92 335 271 199 239 214 235 222 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 145 143 139 137 136 137 138 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 66 63 60 58 60 62 62 59 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 24 26 27 28 30 28 30 28 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 39 45 41 42 44 58 64 81 61 65 70 200 MB DIV 55 39 26 29 18 14 3 41 34 43 35 36 16 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 5 9 9 6 9 9 LAND (KM) 1363 1259 1154 1062 970 782 595 431 285 165 136 158 205 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.4 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.3 145.1 145.8 146.6 148.1 149.6 150.9 152.1 153.4 154.8 156.0 157.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 29 28 29 28 35 30 32 36 25 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 9. 11. 9. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 16. 8. 5. -1. -4. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##