* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 94 102 108 115 120 121 115 106 104 99 96 V (KT) LAND 80 87 94 102 108 115 120 121 115 106 104 99 96 V (KT) LGE mod 80 91 101 111 119 128 134 133 122 106 94 82 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 7 2 6 6 5 9 9 8 9 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -7 -2 -1 1 9 12 14 9 SHEAR DIR 356 11 25 33 350 350 15 337 337 2 38 26 348 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 158 158 156 153 148 142 138 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 67 64 59 56 55 56 59 62 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 27 28 30 33 37 38 36 38 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 25 43 45 52 69 73 73 77 75 80 81 200 MB DIV 74 70 83 102 113 106 113 94 66 58 21 48 37 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 7 9 8 3 LAND (KM) 1693 1756 1822 1876 1933 2028 2125 2221 2248 1999 1798 1655 1555 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.5 123.5 124.5 125.4 127.3 129.3 131.5 133.9 136.1 137.9 139.2 140.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 32 32 35 42 49 24 16 26 27 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 24. 21. 26. 26. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 28. 36. 40. 41. 36. 26. 24. 19. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 12.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##