* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 41 45 51 55 58 61 65 68 68 V (KT) LAND 45 38 40 35 32 30 36 40 44 46 38 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 40 40 33 30 34 39 46 54 44 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 32 29 26 19 7 12 11 17 17 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 -2 -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 277 278 287 302 308 312 280 249 212 234 224 245 228 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 159 165 169 172 171 171 170 170 167 161 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 158 163 164 171 168 164 158 148 141 135 127 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 57 59 66 65 61 60 57 59 58 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 5 -16 -24 -44 -35 -41 -33 -42 -20 -38 -19 200 MB DIV 4 -8 8 2 15 17 22 18 16 25 20 33 33 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -8 -9 -7 -10 2 -3 1 -2 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 69 -25 62 -6 -54 -30 11 92 63 9 -22 -40 -80 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 22.0 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 28.1 29.1 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 71.9 73.4 75.0 76.5 78.8 80.4 81.6 82.3 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 14 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 81 62 16 97 116 123 95 62 35 50 49 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 23. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)