* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 72 77 86 89 91 90 92 95 95 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 72 77 86 89 91 90 92 95 95 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 62 65 67 74 82 90 96 97 98 103 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 9 5 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 239 231 245 258 240 215 215 192 194 208 246 210 205 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 152 152 151 154 154 155 154 154 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 55 56 51 55 54 57 57 56 51 48 49 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 20 20 24 26 28 28 29 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 25 33 34 32 25 25 5 -3 10 12 24 200 MB DIV 5 2 -8 -8 -1 15 15 31 12 14 -10 18 17 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -4 -2 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1302 1373 1444 1517 1591 1725 1833 1914 1960 2005 2036 3551 3422 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 171.3 172.1 172.8 173.6 174.4 175.9 177.2 178.2 178.8 179.3 179.6 180.1 180.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 57 59 56 50 47 46 44 38 24 15 42 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 3. 2. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 20. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 26. 29. 31. 30. 32. 35. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##