* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 83 87 87 87 83 81 77 75 72 74 V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 83 87 87 87 83 81 77 75 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 83 85 87 88 85 80 74 68 63 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 4 5 5 7 14 17 22 23 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 -2 1 1 3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 77 84 65 355 331 277 227 241 231 218 223 222 227 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 143 140 137 137 137 138 138 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 62 61 59 60 62 63 62 60 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 24 27 25 27 27 29 29 29 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 47 50 51 52 59 74 87 86 74 89 90 200 MB DIV 40 30 25 14 24 9 19 23 44 44 25 30 12 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 0 3 0 1 7 13 15 10 8 9 LAND (KM) 1261 1159 1058 960 864 701 519 355 211 152 132 196 258 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.0 145.9 146.7 147.4 148.7 150.2 151.5 152.8 154.0 155.3 156.5 157.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 29 28 30 34 30 36 28 22 25 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 6. 6. 9. 8. 9. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 7. 3. 1. -3. -4. -8. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##