* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 98 105 110 119 123 119 115 113 111 109 103 V (KT) LAND 85 91 98 105 110 119 123 119 115 113 111 109 103 V (KT) LGE mod 85 94 103 112 119 131 134 130 121 107 97 88 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 5 6 6 6 10 10 6 8 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -2 -4 -2 4 7 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 16 43 53 20 12 30 7 356 7 7 66 33 358 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 157 158 158 155 151 146 141 138 135 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 63 60 56 55 53 54 54 55 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 35 38 37 38 41 42 44 43 850 MB ENV VOR 18 32 46 53 61 79 86 95 81 77 85 94 104 200 MB DIV 73 103 100 114 118 81 101 50 46 33 49 18 21 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -6 -6 2 5 4 3 2 LAND (KM) 1762 1824 1891 1941 1994 2081 2167 2289 2115 1882 1719 1579 1481 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.6 125.5 126.4 128.2 130.3 132.7 135.1 137.2 138.7 140.0 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 9 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 33 36 40 49 30 22 15 36 25 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 17. 18. 22. 25. 27. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 25. 34. 38. 34. 30. 28. 26. 24. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 31% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##