* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 35 34 36 36 42 45 52 56 63 67 67 V (KT) LAND 40 42 36 33 31 30 39 42 49 40 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 39 33 31 30 35 39 45 40 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 31 29 28 25 13 11 12 15 16 17 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -4 -9 1 -7 -3 -4 -6 -2 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 277 289 304 309 310 293 242 248 233 244 242 256 242 SST (C) 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.1 29.6 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 159 165 170 173 172 171 170 170 169 159 150 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 158 163 168 173 172 165 157 148 142 132 125 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 60 65 64 62 57 59 56 58 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 4 7 7 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 2 -18 -25 -34 -52 -35 -61 -36 -56 -32 -49 -36 200 MB DIV -4 9 14 22 21 13 33 21 37 11 30 30 30 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -10 -15 -14 -8 2 -4 2 4 1 10 0 LAND (KM) -6 66 -12 -36 -31 -5 87 40 4 -7 -44 -94 -114 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.9 24.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 29.0 30.0 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 73.5 74.9 76.5 78.0 80.3 81.5 82.2 82.6 82.6 82.3 82.3 82.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 14 11 9 7 6 5 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 64 87 96 113 5 14 60 34 51 49 32 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -8. -5. -6. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -4. -4. 2. 5. 12. 16. 23. 27. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)