* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 47 54 60 64 65 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 47 54 60 64 65 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 24 29 35 42 50 56 59 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 11 13 15 10 10 14 9 9 12 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 2 7 5 5 7 4 3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 91 88 74 63 67 66 101 122 157 146 208 247 265 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 133 134 139 140 137 132 126 121 119 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 131 130 131 131 136 136 132 125 119 113 111 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 67 70 72 72 74 74 72 74 71 70 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 95 100 93 94 88 75 62 47 42 46 14 18 200 MB DIV 2 12 26 38 36 23 35 58 78 59 59 33 -3 700-850 TADV 6 2 -1 -4 -5 -8 -5 -3 -7 4 6 7 13 LAND (KM) 56 105 158 186 218 341 471 552 655 814 1005 1215 1396 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.7 13.7 14.9 16.0 17.1 18.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.3 19.9 21.3 22.5 23.6 25.0 26.6 28.4 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 6 6 7 11 17 12 4 1 17 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 406 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 34. 40. 44. 45. 46. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 08/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 08/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)