* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 69 72 82 88 89 90 90 94 98 102 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 69 72 82 88 89 90 90 94 98 102 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 67 71 78 85 93 96 97 99 105 111 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 7 3 7 10 13 10 14 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 2 0 -2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 249 252 266 281 251 250 233 252 227 246 235 234 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 153 155 155 154 153 153 154 153 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 53 50 53 55 56 55 58 56 54 53 54 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 22 24 25 25 27 29 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 37 21 29 37 38 20 20 8 -1 -7 3 0 23 200 MB DIV -2 2 0 5 23 -1 20 11 14 1 13 20 16 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -4 -1 1 1 2 2 5 6 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1375 1450 1525 1591 1658 1754 1849 1912 1954 1996 2055 3427 3313 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.8 20.0 21.3 22.6 23.9 25.0 25.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 172.1 172.9 173.7 174.4 175.1 176.3 177.5 178.3 178.8 179.2 179.7 180.4 181.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 55 50 48 48 48 41 25 13 17 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 20. 24. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 22. 28. 29. 30. 30. 34. 38. 42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##