* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 87 89 89 86 81 77 71 69 64 65 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 87 89 89 86 81 77 71 69 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 84 86 86 85 82 75 68 62 57 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 5 5 4 9 14 17 20 23 22 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -5 -7 -2 1 4 3 2 2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 92 121 298 301 272 254 232 242 206 217 208 220 227 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 140 139 136 136 137 138 138 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 60 61 62 63 62 63 60 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 46 47 45 46 61 69 70 73 78 77 73 200 MB DIV 26 26 24 20 27 4 53 41 45 29 42 36 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 2 2 4 7 13 12 7 11 10 LAND (KM) 1163 1071 980 881 783 599 435 284 175 155 206 254 295 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.8 23.8 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.6 146.3 147.1 147.9 149.4 150.7 152.1 153.5 154.7 155.8 157.0 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 27 26 35 25 29 31 23 19 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 11. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 1. -3. -9. -11. -16. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##