* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 121 112 110 107 102 98 V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 121 112 110 107 102 98 V (KT) LGE mod 105 117 126 132 137 141 139 127 114 102 91 81 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 5 6 8 8 11 11 10 12 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 0 0 4 7 7 8 3 SHEAR DIR 21 48 22 5 3 20 5 357 7 38 51 26 11 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 158 156 152 148 143 138 135 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 60 58 56 53 54 55 55 55 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 30 29 32 35 38 37 40 41 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 48 57 62 73 84 78 79 77 86 87 93 200 MB DIV 95 96 102 107 105 72 70 30 33 12 28 0 25 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -7 -2 6 4 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 1827 1878 1933 1975 2021 2117 2230 2227 1970 1771 1629 1519 1442 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.3 129.3 131.7 134.1 136.4 138.2 139.5 140.5 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 10 8 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 35 38 42 47 24 16 33 27 23 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 20. 22. 21. 16. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 50% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 50% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##