* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 36 38 40 46 51 54 61 65 67 65 V (KT) LAND 35 34 30 29 28 34 39 45 47 55 58 44 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 30 29 29 33 36 40 46 53 61 48 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 25 21 18 13 18 14 16 15 26 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -5 -1 -2 -1 -5 0 -3 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 281 301 307 305 292 246 235 223 234 206 215 200 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 167 174 173 173 171 170 168 168 170 170 167 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 167 174 173 173 166 156 146 146 149 146 138 130 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 56 62 63 60 59 61 61 65 64 71 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -22 -27 -35 -47 -34 -54 -36 -53 -30 -52 -35 -49 200 MB DIV 5 34 44 32 19 22 29 33 23 46 51 41 35 700-850 TADV 4 -3 -13 -18 -10 -2 -1 3 1 6 8 7 6 LAND (KM) 30 4 -22 -18 -36 107 163 150 177 182 47 -52 -107 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.9 21.8 22.6 24.1 25.5 26.3 26.5 27.4 29.3 30.5 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 76.0 77.5 78.9 80.3 82.4 83.3 83.8 84.2 84.6 85.2 85.2 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 14 10 6 3 3 7 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 69 29 105 114 117 50 46 43 41 45 31 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 26. 30. 32. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)