* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 60 66 68 67 64 61 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 51 60 66 68 67 64 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 37 44 54 64 70 70 65 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 14 16 14 11 8 9 10 20 22 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 0 1 3 3 9 5 3 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 97 85 58 60 59 61 92 149 195 197 228 249 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 133 135 139 141 135 127 119 116 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 130 132 136 137 130 121 113 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 71 72 72 72 76 75 74 72 68 63 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 91 97 88 88 82 74 53 47 31 42 4 5 -24 200 MB DIV 12 29 37 32 16 24 59 73 39 51 21 -8 -5 700-850 TADV 6 1 -4 -8 -8 -10 -8 -10 0 10 6 13 7 LAND (KM) 133 171 215 209 237 347 428 526 715 955 1162 1345 1534 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.0 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.3 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.6 20.0 21.2 22.4 24.0 25.9 27.9 29.9 31.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 7 13 16 8 1 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 26. 35. 41. 43. 42. 39. 36. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 08/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 08/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)