* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 75 79 87 91 92 92 96 97 101 108 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 75 79 87 91 92 92 96 97 101 108 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 71 75 79 87 92 96 99 100 101 106 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 8 5 5 5 3 5 9 11 4 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 3 1 0 0 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 238 248 252 233 224 216 229 264 238 252 246 264 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 153 154 156 154 151 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 50 50 54 55 56 57 57 55 51 50 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 19 20 22 24 25 25 29 30 33 38 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 33 29 27 19 20 6 -5 -7 3 22 42 200 MB DIV -6 -16 -3 4 12 7 52 -5 17 -9 -9 13 4 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -2 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 1450 1527 1605 1654 1705 1805 1888 1942 1984 2026 2067 3581 3487 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.4 23.0 23.9 23.9 24.3 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 172.9 173.7 174.5 175.1 175.7 176.9 177.9 178.6 179.1 179.5 179.9 180.5 181.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 50 47 47 47 46 40 21 14 16 45 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 11. 12. 13. 18. 20. 24. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 14. 22. 26. 27. 27. 31. 32. 36. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##