* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 88 87 89 83 77 73 69 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 88 87 89 83 77 73 69 63 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 82 83 84 82 77 71 66 61 56 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 1 3 8 9 10 13 19 22 24 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 0 5 5 4 -3 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 296 300 7 243 270 243 250 221 209 210 215 226 227 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 139 137 136 136 137 138 137 135 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 58 60 62 63 63 61 59 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 26 25 28 27 27 27 28 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 39 40 40 48 68 69 67 79 82 78 75 200 MB DIV 24 21 19 16 10 31 21 28 47 39 34 11 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 4 2 5 9 10 6 10 7 9 LAND (KM) 1076 987 898 799 702 528 381 236 160 144 226 269 334 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.3 147.0 147.8 148.6 150.0 151.2 152.6 154.1 155.4 156.4 157.6 159.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 27 30 32 27 32 25 21 22 15 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 2. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 7. 9. 3. -3. -7. -11. -17. -18. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##