* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 137 143 144 145 139 126 115 109 105 100 95 88 V (KT) LAND 125 137 143 144 145 139 126 115 109 105 100 95 88 V (KT) LGE mod 125 139 146 148 149 147 139 123 110 101 92 81 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 8 9 13 13 7 8 8 7 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 3 5 5 6 6 3 SHEAR DIR 14 352 4 3 356 5 360 21 30 51 22 19 13 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 159 158 156 152 147 143 138 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 60 58 55 53 55 55 56 55 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 29 33 37 37 37 39 41 41 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 51 55 65 72 86 82 87 88 101 106 116 200 MB DIV 91 103 119 117 96 94 47 41 -4 56 19 31 13 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -6 -7 -1 5 2 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 1893 1946 2002 2054 2110 2199 2336 2105 1884 1695 1569 1456 1379 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.7 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.3 126.2 127.2 128.2 130.4 133.0 135.3 137.3 139.0 140.1 141.1 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 37 41 42 47 30 21 18 46 22 16 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -21. -29. -36. -44. -50. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 12. 16. 17. 14. 7. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 14. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 18. 19. 20. 14. 1. -10. -16. -20. -25. -30. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##