* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 27 27 27 33 37 45 47 51 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 33 36 45 46 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 25 27 29 32 36 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 24 21 15 14 20 17 18 18 28 36 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 -7 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 305 310 307 286 260 223 238 215 223 219 227 226 242 SST (C) 29.7 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 28.9 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 174 173 173 172 171 169 169 169 165 148 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 174 173 173 170 154 144 142 142 138 122 110 109 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 10 8 9 6 9 5 700-500 MB RH 53 56 63 66 64 59 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 5 6 5 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -54 -51 -53 -46 -22 -42 -27 -49 -33 -56 -49 -43 200 MB DIV 28 45 42 34 30 27 27 48 12 40 14 22 17 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -15 -6 -1 6 0 3 4 1 2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 32 67 111 132 3 27 50 92 42 -61 -233 -311 -307 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.2 25.1 26.6 27.7 28.5 29.4 30.6 32.2 32.9 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 77.2 78.8 79.9 81.0 82.4 83.3 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.4 84.4 84.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 13 12 8 5 5 5 7 6 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 70 53 98 91 13 34 60 55 43 40 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -3. 3. 7. 15. 17. 21. 24. 25. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)