* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 58 64 65 65 61 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 58 64 65 65 61 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 44 54 63 69 69 64 58 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 16 16 10 8 6 17 20 22 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 9 4 2 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 85 51 60 59 52 71 105 178 168 200 222 238 243 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 132 134 139 141 134 125 120 118 118 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 127 129 131 137 138 129 118 112 110 110 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 72 71 73 75 77 77 75 75 73 65 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 11 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 60 48 56 43 40 35 56 46 8 14 -11 200 MB DIV 25 40 36 14 24 42 60 78 100 61 12 0 0 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -5 -6 -9 -6 -6 -9 6 15 6 7 10 LAND (KM) 181 215 250 245 249 336 420 548 738 945 1170 1369 1588 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 12.1 13.6 15.1 16.4 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.9 21.2 22.6 24.2 25.9 27.9 29.9 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 7 12 16 6 1 13 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 39. 40. 40. 36. 33. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 08/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 08/29/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)