* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 93 98 101 108 107 109 107 105 110 114 115 V (KT) LAND 80 87 93 98 101 108 107 109 107 105 110 114 115 V (KT) LGE mod 80 89 95 101 106 113 116 114 111 107 107 111 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 5 7 11 9 14 8 9 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 235 249 245 220 216 231 249 245 269 270 253 211 231 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 153 153 155 156 154 153 153 154 154 155 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 51 53 53 56 56 56 53 54 51 53 51 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 24 25 29 30 32 35 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 13 19 24 23 19 21 3 -2 -16 2 4 39 40 200 MB DIV -19 -14 0 16 12 33 14 22 3 -13 3 28 8 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 1 1 3 3 4 6 5 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 1541 1602 1665 1725 1787 1899 1973 2005 2026 2070 3536 3482 3414 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 23.7 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 173.9 174.6 175.3 176.0 176.7 178.0 178.9 179.3 179.5 179.9 180.6 181.3 182.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 48 47 47 48 45 39 25 15 14 45 43 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 10. 12. 17. 19. 21. 28. 33. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 21. 28. 27. 29. 27. 25. 30. 34. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##