* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 108 108 103 96 82 74 65 64 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 100 105 108 108 103 96 82 74 65 64 61 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 100 105 106 104 101 91 79 71 63 58 55 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 8 12 10 16 20 21 17 17 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -4 -1 3 7 3 0 -1 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 309 329 279 257 257 236 242 206 218 209 225 238 260 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 137 136 136 136 138 138 135 135 136 133 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 59 60 62 63 63 64 62 63 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 23 26 24 25 24 25 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 34 36 29 50 54 56 58 60 50 50 48 200 MB DIV 22 20 16 12 17 26 12 43 37 29 19 17 12 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 6 7 6 6 12 9 7 4 10 9 LAND (KM) 1004 912 821 731 642 475 335 218 193 206 265 316 400 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.7 22.8 23.9 24.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 146.9 147.6 148.3 149.0 150.4 151.6 153.0 154.4 155.8 157.0 158.3 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 27 28 34 28 26 30 19 19 17 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 3. -4. -18. -26. -35. -36. -39. -40. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##