* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 137 139 140 138 128 121 113 107 100 95 90 89 V (KT) LAND 130 137 139 140 138 128 121 113 107 100 95 90 89 V (KT) LGE mod 130 133 133 131 129 121 113 106 95 86 80 75 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 9 9 10 8 5 5 4 1 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 4 8 11 10 8 2 3 SHEAR DIR 329 340 350 358 353 356 15 31 35 66 334 287 321 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 157 154 150 145 141 138 134 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 56 56 56 61 63 62 61 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 33 34 34 39 40 41 40 40 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 37 52 56 61 58 69 74 82 84 100 103 110 110 200 MB DIV 102 130 100 60 66 83 50 37 37 63 16 37 17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -6 -6 -5 -2 7 7 8 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1935 1986 2042 2090 2136 2244 2251 2016 1819 1663 1540 1458 1400 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.1 131.4 134.0 136.1 137.9 139.3 140.4 141.1 141.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 8 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 41 47 54 24 17 36 34 21 13 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -25. -33. -41. -50. -56. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 4. 0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 13. 15. 17. 15. 16. 18. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 10. 8. -2. -9. -17. -23. -30. -35. -40. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##