* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL902015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 41 46 49 51 49 51 53 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 41 46 49 51 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 38 41 44 47 51 38 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 18 14 15 22 19 24 32 40 42 35 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -1 0 -3 -2 -7 -3 -2 -4 -4 -9 -3 SHEAR DIR 306 305 291 274 242 241 229 229 211 213 196 200 173 SST (C) 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 28.9 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 172 172 171 171 170 170 169 164 148 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 172 171 167 155 149 145 143 137 121 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 5 8 700-500 MB RH 56 63 64 63 64 59 60 58 64 64 68 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 5 5 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -37 -43 -47 -25 -39 -20 -47 -26 -54 -34 -61 -41 200 MB DIV 53 45 34 28 48 14 55 32 50 34 21 5 3 700-850 TADV -16 -18 -8 -6 1 3 8 5 6 4 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 61 72 63 89 84 103 167 100 33 -104 -203 -278 -327 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.3 25.1 26.4 27.7 28.8 30.1 31.4 32.5 33.2 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.8 80.1 81.1 82.0 83.3 84.5 85.3 86.2 86.9 87.6 88.2 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 93 84 64 55 51 46 41 23 39 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 21 CX,CY: -17/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 840 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 16. 14. 16. 18. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902015 ERIKA 08/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902015 ERIKA 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902015 ERIKA 08/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED