* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 57 62 65 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 57 62 65 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 49 58 64 64 62 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 15 13 11 5 8 17 15 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 6 7 6 -4 -2 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 48 45 47 46 50 51 111 157 162 201 214 226 240 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 135 139 142 139 133 129 127 123 121 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 131 135 138 140 136 127 121 118 114 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 75 77 79 76 72 70 63 60 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 13 13 11 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 81 73 60 59 60 56 46 39 74 36 11 11 -3 200 MB DIV 41 37 24 32 36 38 75 93 88 68 39 20 1 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -9 -10 -7 -9 -7 -6 1 0 2 0 4 LAND (KM) 202 237 242 291 369 535 659 806 947 1091 1249 1407 1596 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.4 13.6 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.8 23.5 25.0 26.3 27.6 29.0 30.4 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 7 10 16 10 5 2 2 1 1 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 32. 37. 40. 39. 38. 37. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 08/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 08/29/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)