* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 123 131 132 134 129 119 117 113 110 110 109 113 V (KT) LAND 110 123 131 132 134 129 119 117 113 110 110 109 113 V (KT) LGE mod 110 126 135 138 139 136 133 129 122 115 112 110 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 6 8 8 7 4 5 7 9 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 5 3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 300 261 234 221 235 254 243 236 206 256 259 262 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 153 154 155 155 155 154 153 152 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 54 53 51 52 48 47 47 48 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 23 24 24 27 29 31 33 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 21 14 12 9 -4 -14 -11 4 18 34 47 200 MB DIV -12 2 7 -4 -6 30 -5 -10 -11 4 21 22 22 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 1 3 1 0 2 3 0 1 5 LAND (KM) 1638 1698 1760 1821 1882 1954 1989 2025 2067 3601 3576 3542 3474 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.5 21.8 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.6 176.3 177.0 177.7 178.6 179.1 179.5 179.9 180.1 180.4 181.1 182.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 47 45 43 43 35 24 16 44 45 45 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 12. 18. 19. 17. 10. 5. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 8. 14. 15. 18. 21. 24. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 21. 22. 24. 19. 9. 7. 3. 0. 0. -1. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 61% is 12.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##