* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 125 123 116 99 83 71 63 59 57 55 55 V (KT) LAND 115 123 125 123 116 99 83 71 63 59 57 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 115 121 119 112 105 89 76 66 58 53 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 8 9 9 13 17 21 19 17 17 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -1 0 5 7 6 -2 3 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 218 254 258 255 244 229 210 225 222 221 232 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 137 136 135 137 137 138 136 134 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 60 58 59 60 60 63 60 63 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 35 39 45 61 65 56 62 58 66 57 41 200 MB DIV 18 26 -7 3 19 25 16 25 32 23 19 6 4 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 7 5 7 6 12 8 11 4 11 14 LAND (KM) 946 850 755 671 588 421 252 190 174 235 307 411 549 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.7 25.9 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 146.6 147.4 148.1 148.8 149.4 150.8 152.5 153.9 155.2 156.5 158.0 159.2 160.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 33 34 23 30 22 18 21 12 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -27. -33. -39. -45. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 8. 1. -16. -32. -44. -52. -56. -58. -60. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 12 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##