* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 117 116 116 113 109 107 104 96 93 86 84 V (KT) LAND 120 118 117 116 116 113 109 107 104 96 93 86 84 V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 117 117 116 114 109 101 95 86 78 71 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 14 14 10 9 6 3 3 1 7 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 0 3 4 10 11 7 4 6 6 SHEAR DIR 349 356 356 1 1 4 357 37 324 262 314 262 307 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 155 152 148 143 139 136 133 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 57 57 57 57 58 62 66 66 65 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 33 33 35 35 36 39 40 39 41 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 58 51 55 76 67 76 79 86 92 103 109 200 MB DIV 132 96 52 62 75 50 51 25 47 29 45 26 25 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -9 -6 -6 -5 0 10 10 7 5 3 4 LAND (KM) 1971 2014 2062 2121 2168 2310 2149 1925 1749 1607 1498 1408 1331 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.9 127.8 129.0 130.1 132.6 134.9 136.9 138.5 139.8 140.8 141.6 142.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 11 9 7 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 45 54 33 23 16 47 26 18 9 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -34. -41. -47. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 15. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -24. -27. -34. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##